The series of rapid and dramatic events in Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula this spring, including the Ukraine crisis and Crimea's declaration of independence and accenssion to Russia could profoundly alter the post-Cold War geopolitical landscape and even the whole framework of international relations that has evolved during the last two and half decades.

 

Yalta, midpoint of the swinging pendulum                                                        After the establishment of the Yalta System in 1945, the West unrelentingly tried to modify it and prevent the Soviet Union from further gaining any advantage. This is called the "Cold War". Ultimately, the West took the upper hand. Dramatically, Yalta's seccession from the Soviet Union ensued after the dissolution of the Soviet Union signaled the victory of the West.

 

This whole process of gaining and forfeiting the edge is like a pendulum swinging from the Soviet Union to the West and vice versa, and Yalta is the midpoint. As Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked: "We've always been marginalized. But there is a limit for everything." Therefore, the return of Yalta and Crimea today signifies a big stride forward for Russia. This is the most explicit geopolitical significance of Russia's annexation of Crimea.

 

Russia's great power ambitions                                                                          Putin's stunning speech immediately after signing the treaty through which Russia formally annexed Crimea on March 18 clarified the Russian position for the rest of the world. Two points are particularly noteworthy. First, Putin asserts that the essence of the Ukraine crisis is the Western ambition to deter Eurasian integration. "We understand what is happening; we understand that these actions were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration," he said.

 

Second, he mentioned by naming Eurasian countries with whom he wants to strengthen ties. China and India were mentioned, while fellow BRICS but non-Eurasian countries Brazil and South Africa were not. Putin also referenced Germany, a key country with whom Putin hopes to reach an understanding. Once this has been achieved, Russia will be able to stand erect with burgeoning power throughout the Eurasian continent.

 

Arrival of radical changes                                                                                Ukraine's stance and alignment has a decisive impact on the cooperative relations between Russia and the West. Russia of course is reluctant to witness a rupture in its political ties with the West, which it was on the brink of but could manage to avert in its handling of the Ukraine crisis. It has shown that it will respect the sovereign independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, making Ukraine the point of balance between Russia and the West. Now let's look at how the annexation of Crimean Peninsula will affect the areas bordering the Black Sea. As Putin indicated in his speech, the Black Sea serves as Russia's southern port, and is thus instrumental in its security as well as its projection of power. Once Crimea is part of Russia, Russia will also have control over the Black Sea, which will help it gain power in Middle East and Turkey. This is good news for the Assad regime in Syria because Russia will now have more influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

 

In the 1850s, the Crimean War ended the Vienna System, so will the Crimea's secession and annexation today again becomes the trigger of restructing international power?Indeed, it is evident that America's unipolar hegemony has been compromised. However, the termination of the unipolar system does not mean the restoration of a bipolar structure. Even if the territory of the Soviet Union is completely regained, the rise of emerging powers like China has fundamentally and irreversibly reshaped the geopolitical order. Russia's hostility toward the West will make both sides more actively solicit support from China.

 

Therefore, in the foreseeable future, the West will face escalating pressure from China and Russia. This trend, along with the burgeoning collective power of emerging countries, will subvert the Western-centric political order that has held strong for several hundred years. Crimea's annexation by Russia and Putin's speech are harbingers that a period of radical geopolitical changes is already underway.

 

Ding Xin is from the Institute of International Relations at Nanjing University.

The Chinese version appeared in Chinese Social Sciences Today, No. 584, April 16, 2014
 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Translated by Bai Le            

Revised by Charles Horne