Now that China has become a significant driver of world economic growth, its economic reform and transition will have a deep impact on the world.

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LONDON—Following the 19th CPC National Congress,  European China studies experts are speculating about the congress’ implications for China’s future economic reforms and its role in global governance.  

Now that China has become a significant driver of world economic growth, its economic reform and transition will have a deep impact on the world.

Shaun Breslin, a professor of politics and international studies at the University of Warwick, said he is interested in what China’s economic reform priorities and global governance preferences will be in the coming years. China’ s economic performance has been quite impressive on the whole in the past five years, and the key is the next stage in which it transitions away from a model driven by GDP high growth while trying to provide a greener and low-carbon alternative, he said.

“China is, it seems to me, at a crucial turning point. The tone and ambitions set at the congress will be very important,” said Jean-Pierre Lehmann, an emeritus professor of international political economy at the International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland.
Chinese growth has been quite spectacular in this century, but due to a combination of factors—demographics, economics, technology and markets—more and quite radical reforms are necessary for growth to be more inclusive, innovative, equitable and sustainable, he said.

Former UK Treasury Commercial Secretary Jim O’Neill wrote that he was most concerned with two questions about the congress—one being whether growth of domestic consumption would be able to sustain annual GDP growth of 6 to 7 percent, the other being whether the “Belt and Road (B&R)” initiative will still be a top priority.

China’s increasing domestic consumption could easily become the most important factor contributing to global consumption, O’Neill observed. Its contribution to GDP grew from 35.5 percent in 2010 to 39.2 percent in 2016, and is expected to increase to 41.5 percent by 2020, which could be accelerating even faster. Such an increase is encouraging, especially at a time when the global economy urgently requires rebalancing, O’Neill wrote. The impact of the congress on this trend needs to be watched closely, he concluded.

It is important to know what concrete measures and reforms will be announced to realize the Chinese Dream, Lehmann said. The Chinese Dream entails a high-income economy coupled with harmonious social, environmental, and global relations driven by creativity and the power of ideas, which would be great for both China and the world, he said.

As an advocate of economic globalization and free trade, China has been playing an increasingly vital role in global governance. With both its hard power and soft power growing, China will shoulder more responsibilities as a great power. In his report to the congress, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping talked about “adhering to the path of peaceful development and constructing a community of common destiny for mankind.”

Lehmann said it is a great concept  one people should strive for, but putting words into action will be difficult as there is not much sense of a “common community” at the moment. China could potentially make a great contribution in this aspect, he added. He said he hopes China could be more committed to leading global multilateral trade, and the “B&R” initiative could be a good example.

The initiative could mean enormous economic potential for Eurasia and the whole world, and it may provide new perspectives and options at a time when the United States is becoming more disengaged, isolationist and unilateral, Lehmann said. 

O’Neill wrote that the geopolitical implications of the initiative could be even more interesting than its infrastructure projects. It could not only bring China closer to its neighbors but also improve relations between the neighbors. 

 

 

JIANG HONG is a reporter at the Chinese Social Sciences Today.