Demographics shift as economy undergoes restructuring

By By Lu Jiehua, Guo Ran / 03-30-2016 / (Chinese Social Sciences Today)

Families that lose their only child need social care and support.

 

As China’s demographics shift and the country’s economy enters the “new normal,” population researchers are turning their attention to issues like low fertility rate,  the aging population, the declining demographic dividend and gender imbalance.
 

There is no doubt that the adjustment of China’s fertility policy during the 12th Five-Year Plan is a crucial milestone. The decision to permit couples a second child, signaling the end of the one-child policy, is a preview of further adjustments to family-planning policy that are expected in the years to come.
 

The current discussion of fertility policy focuses on evaluating fertility desire and behavior among targeted groups. Studies are probing such factors as age, household structure, predicted and actual births as well as the influence of birth patterns on the gender ratio. In addition, the connection between the low fertility rate and the declining demographic dividend needs to be analyzed for policy adjustment.
 

The aging population in China has been rising since 2000, presenting new challenges to the nation’s leaders. By 2014, the number of people over the age 65 had grown to account for more than 10 percent of the total population.
 

The current study of population aging includes an evaluation of the reasons for the problem as well as an analysis of its extent, its impact on the demographic structure and the challenges that the rising burden of geriatric care will pose to society and the economy. Many factors impact the health of the elderly, such as their physical and psychological condition, emotional needs, marital status, living habits and social interactions. In addition, policymakers must consider social support, such as the distribution of pension insurance and medical services as well as the issues of postponed retirement and basic salaries for retirees. The form of geriatric care and its commercial potential as a service industry is another sphere of study. Moreover, the problems that empty-nesters, elderly migrant workers and disabled seniors from rural areas face in the context of the increasingly serious aging situation are noteworthy.
 

China’s economic restructuring means that the macroeconomic pattern of the country will be profoundly transformed, bringing new opportunities for urbanization. In such a context, current research on urbanization mainly focuses on immigration into the city, labor demand and industrial development.
 

The effect of the new urbanization varies depending on the group. It influences fertility in urban and rural areas as well as happiness and the division and integration of the urban and rural population, especially the integration of migrants into cities. Moreover, the industrial agglomeration has a strong appeal for workers, especially rural migrant workers, and has positive effects on the population of the targeted places where these migrant workers settle. The adjustment of industrial structure is also closely related to the elasticity of the labor market, which directly affects the utilization of manpower.


In addition, some of the most heatedly discussed topics also include the issues like families who have lost their only child, disabled groups and low-income families that receive governmental allowances, migrant women and children, and infectious disease control.
 

All in all, the demographic pattern of China has reached a period of structural transformation. The population is aging while birth rates remain low, and the rising dependency ratio also aggravates the economic slowdown. Demographic research sheds light on these issues to guide researchers and decision-makers. The analysis on the relaxation of the one-child policy and on the relationships among urbanization, industry and population will provide them with reasonable solutions.