Environmental groups protest at Place de la République, Paris, using shoes to represent concerned citizens who could not come in person.

 

LONDON AND WASHINGTON— Climate-related financing and closing the emissions gap will be at the top of the agenda of the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, also known as COP 21, which is taking place in Paris from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11.

As in previous climate talks, disagreements and impasses are to be expected, said Gwynne Taraska, a senior policy adviser at the Center for American Progress. But if a strong agreement is reached, COP 21 could be a turning point in addressing global climate change, ushering in a new era for clean energy and global cooperation, she said.

“Politically, it will be very challenging, ” said Rob Bailey, research director of Energy, Environment and Resources at UK think tank Chatham House. Governments have already committed to reducing emissions, and they have to figure out how to meet even more ambitious goals in the next few years after the Paris talks. In many countries, this will be a very difficult conversation politically, but it is necessary to keep increases in average global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, he said.
 

It is not easy for people to change their lifestyles, said David King, the UK foreign secretary’s special representative for climate change, but transition to a low-carbon economy means an opportunity for innovation and wealth creation. “As new technology rolls out, it becomes cheaper to produce electricity and heat from non-fossil fuel sources than from fossil fuel sources, and surely we can expect to move much more quickly toward reducing emissions of greenhouse gases,” King said.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2015, there remains a significant gap between the emissions reduction targets proposed by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and what is required for keeping the increase in average global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. “I think the first and most important issue is going to be establishing a mechanism or process to close the emissions gap,” Bailey said, adding that it is necessary to reach an agreement in Paris to gradually reduce emissions.
 

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol required emissions reductions only from developed countries, and the 2009 Copenhagen Accord failed to result in sufficient emissions reductions despite covering more than 80 percent of global emissions. Taraska wrote that the emerging Paris agreement is expected to take into account the strengths and weaknesses of the two, covering even more global emissions and leveraging meaningful reductions.
 

At the Copenhagen summit, developed countries promised to provide financial support to help developing countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change. They pledged to provide $30 billion for the period from 2010 to 2012 and collectively mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 from various sources. However, this has yet to be fully achieved.
 

Nicholas Stern, president of the British Academy and an expert on climate economics, wrote that meeting the $100 billion goal is imperative. If the pledge is not honored, the potential of an agreement in Paris will be at risk. Although the developed countries are making progress, more funds are needed, especially from the private sector.

Bailey said COP 21 needs to further discuss how much funding is available to help developing countries meet their goals, and how to reach the financial goals agreed upon in Copenhagen. A bigger question for the Paris talks is planning for post-2020 financing to fight climate change, and what mechanisms and institutions will continue to work after 2020, he said.
 

Stern proposed that climate financing should aim to establish and implement policies, regulations and frameworks to create appropriate incentives for investors. The right incentives will facilitate a dramatic rise in private investment, helping to meet the $100 billion goal.

 

Jiang Hong and Zhang Xiaoxi are reporters at the Chinese Social Sciences Today.