China is pivoting toward a cleaner energy mix and more sustainable development, but coal will remain a dominant source of power for decades to come.

 

The Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a report titled World Energy China Outlook 2014-2015 on the sidelines of a symposium on trends of world and China energy in Beijing on March 25.

The second half of 2014 saw a dramatic drop in the international oil price from $115 to $50-$55 a barrel. This change not only reflects an imbalanced supply-demand relationship for international oil, but also indicates the international oil and gas markets have entered a new phase with new rules, said Xu Xiaojie, an IWEP research fellow.
 

The report projected an overall decline of global energy demand after 2015 and an optimal energy consumption structure with global impact around 2030. By then, the proportion of natural gas as well as nuclear and renewable energy in the consumption structure will be basically equal to that of coal and oil. The transition will be accelerated if the United Nations Climate Summit to take place in Paris in 2015 reaches a global agreement.
 

Push to cut coal consumption
Many cities in China have been affected by haze, resulting in growing public concern over the relationship between coal consumption and environmental issues. Xu predicted China’s use of coal in its energy mix will decline to 50 percent by 2030. Nevertheless, coal will still be a dominant energy source for China over the next few decades, said Xu.

According to a study on energy and climate change carried out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the US, coal consumption does not necessarily create air pollution. Xu said under the current development mode, coal is a source of pollution in China. However, it can become a clean energy and be used in a more effective way through technological improvement and innovation, he said.
 

The report held that China should promote the clean development of fossil energy while reducing dependence on it, by introducing policies supporting these goals in future. Regarding the coal industry, the report said: “China, as the world’s biggest consumer market for coal, is justifiably leading in innovating and promoting technologies for the clean development and effective use of coal.”

Strategic opportunity for energy
According to the report, China’s energy demand and supply will both grow significantly before 2020. The annual growth rate will be down to 1 percent from 2020 to 2030 as slower growth takes over.

“This means that the 13th Five-year Plan will be a crucial period for China’s energy transition and structure optimization. If we miss this period of strategic opportunity, we will meet with great economic and political risks in economic restructuring, sustainable development, environmental protection, promise on carbon emissions, and other aspects,” said Xu.

Over the past two years, China’s central government has paid high attention to energy issues. More than 50 energy policies, plans and action projects have been introduced to limit air pollution, advance environmental protection and promote sustainable development.
 

But these policies are still inadequate. The report suggested that fostering sustainable development should become the keynote of China’s future energy strategy and policy. Policymaking should respect the nature of energy and be clear of the ultimate goal of policies and fundamental functions of the government. The energy industry should shift its operation mode from energy supply to energy service, and there should be platforms and mechanisms for the public to have effective dialogue and communication with the government and the energy industry, so society can share the achievements of the energy revolution.

 

 

Deng Zhimei is a reporter at the Chinese Social Sciences Today.