Parcels are classified at a distribution center of courier company Shanghai STO Express in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. The rise of e-commerce is driving the logistics industry to develop rapidly.

 The report found China must develop new strategies for economic and social development accordingly.

Blue Book of China’s Society: Society of China Analysis and Forecast (2015) studied China’s social development against the backdrop of its “new normal” economy, analyzing the overall situation of society in an era of deepening reforms.

“New normal” refers to characteristics of China’s current economic development. The report explored changes China is now undergoing and the “new normal” for social development.

Based on studies over the past two years, the report found that China’s social development has essentially entered a “new growth” stage with transitions in six key areas.

The first is a transition in urbanization development. The report found that China’s urbanization is adopting a new trend characterized by tourism and leisure agriculture in rural areas, which are also attracting more urban residents for seniors’ care and in the service industry.

The second is a transition in the labor market. The report found that both the proportion of working-age people among the entire population and the total workforce are declining, posing a future labor shortage.

“From a theoretical perspective, rural areas have a surplus labor force. However, it’s impossible to transition these workers into the industrial sector because of their advanced age. China’s employment policy should pay high attention to this trend,” said Li Peilin, CASS vice-president and chief editor of the report.

In terms of income distribution, the report found that since reform and opening-up, China’s income gap on the whole has widened. From 2008 to 2013, however, the Gini coefficient, a key measure for income equality, gradually declined. Among great powers in the world, only China and Brazil are narrowing their income gaps, while countries including the US, Russia and India are widening their income gaps.

The report also found a transition in occupational structure. In 2013, the proportion of tertiary industry in China’s economic output reached 46.1 percent for the first time, exceeding secondary industry. In 2016, the proportion of tertiary industry is likely to exceed 50 percent, indicating that China is progressing from its mid-industrialization phase to a late-industrialization phase.

“There will start to be a new occupational structure,” said Li. “The ‘white-collar era’ will see white-collar workers outnumber blue-collar workers among all the nonagricultural workers.”
New concepts have also emerged, including “building a moderately prosperous society in all respects,” which Li said would have a deep impact on Chinese society.

In terms of consumption, the report found that China’s overall consumption rate and household consumption rate have been falling since 2000. However, new changes have taken place over the past two years. According to statistics for the first half year of 2014, domestic consumption surpassed investment and exports to become the driving force of China’s economic growth.

The last transition is in the quality of China’s social development. The report found quality- and efficiency-oriented development has replaced quantity-orientated development, which uses GDP as the main indicator for growth. People now have higher requirements for their livelihoods, health, food safety, environment, satisfaction and happiness.

The report found that as China enters its “new normal” phase it will experience great adjustment in economic and social development by changing from focusing on quantity to quality of growth; emphasizing job growth and improving people’s living standards while maintaining economic growth; and using social governance to not only stimulate social vigor but also promote equity and stability.