In April, volunteers from the Jiangxi Science and Technology Museum visited rural schools in Jishui County, Jiangxi Province, to carry out science popularization activities. Photo: IC PHOTO

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The resolution adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee states that, “with a view to optimizing the allocation of educational resources across regions, we will establish mechanisms for aligning the supply of basic public education services with demographic changes.” As a core component of such services, basic education must be strategically planned in response to fluctuations in the school-age population—an essential task in China’s broader effort to build a high-quality education system in the new era.

Demographic changes as core variables

China’s current demographic trends are characterized by declining birth rates, an aging population, and regional demographic disparities—all of which now serve as core variables in planning the allocation of basic education resources. Since 2017, the number of births in China has steadily declined. Accordingly, the demand for preschool, primary, middle, and high school education is projected to peak in 2020, 2023, 2029, and 2032, respectively, before beginning to decline. While the shrinking school-age population will inevitably reduce the overall scale of basic education, it also opens up opportunities for more refined, higher-quality educational planning—facilitating a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development.

At present, the most prominent forms of regional population change in China are interprovincial migration and rural-to-urban migration. Interprovincial flows primarily move from the northeast and central-western regions toward the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the southeastern coastal provinces. Under the new urbanization model, rural schools are facing declining enrollment, while urban schools are experiencing overcrowding. In response to this mismatch, the allocation of basic education resources needs to shift from large-scale provision to structural adjustments, addressing the need for preschool and compulsory education in urban areas, while also developing plans for implementing small-class teaching in rural schools to improve education quality in the countryside.

County-level areas as foundation

As the basic unit of national governance, county-level areas constitute links for integrating urban and rural elements. For this reason, county-level planning must be treated as the foundational basis for the allocation of basic education resources.

Advancing the integration of urban and rural basic education resources in county-level areas: Considering the reality of “crowded cities and empty villages,” county-level basic education resources should be directed toward areas where population inflows are concentrated. This includes building, renovating, or expanding high-quality kindergartens and compulsory education schools to meet the needs of new residents. At the same time, the construction of small-scale rural schools should be promoted, ensuring that families temporarily unable or unwilling to move to urban areas still have access to quality basic education.

Optimizing resource structure: As disparities in material resources for county-level basic education in China have gradually narrowed, investment in human capital becomes the focus of resource allocation. Accordingly, county-level governments should adjust the priorities of their education spending based on the level of regional socioeconomic development and the specific conditions of local schools, particularly by increasing funding for teacher training in high-demand subjects.

Aligning supply with demand through dynamic adjustments: It is important to analyze population projections for each stage of education to identify peak enrollment periods and remove institutional barriers to the mobility of teachers across grade levels, subject areas, and schools. At the same time, counties should develop geographic information systems that map school locations, service radii, and transportation routes, along with databases tracking changes in the school-age population. These tools will help assess each school’s capacity and address the pressure on urban education systems caused by population growth.

In conclusion, only through forward-looking planning and strategic deployment of educational resources based on demographic changes can China build a basic education system that truly meets the needs and expectations of its people.

Zhang Xiang is a professor from the School of Education at Guizhou Normal University.

Edited by WANG YOURAN