Ten couples dressed in traditional Chinese wedding attire participate in a group wedding at the ancient town of Wuyi County, Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, on Sept. 28. Photo: IC PHOTO

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With the continued decline in marriage and fertility rates in China, discussions about “no marriage, no childbearing (for peace of mind)” have emerged, particularly online. In recent years, the trend of young Chinese individuals choosing not to marry or have children has indeed risen. Compared to a few decades ago, a growing number of people are opting for a single life. Moreover, many young people claim they would not have children even if they marry.

This indicates that discussions about marriage and childbearing have become more grounded in reality, but it also prompts us to reflect on whether young people are truly rejecting marriage and parenthood, and whether online rhetoric accurately reflects the situation.

Delayed marriage, childbirth

Multifaceted research has shown that the “no marriage, no childbearing” narrative has its roots in communication dynamics. Statistically, these discussions diverge significantly from reality and are often based on misconceptions.

Based on the national population census, the gap between the rhetoric surrounding young people’s views on marriage and childbearing and the actual situation is evident in at least five key areas.

First, “no marriage” does not mean a lifetime commitment to stay unmarried. Census data reveals that China remains a society with widespread marriage. The proportion of unmarried individuals in the 40-year-old age group was 4.78% in 2020, with 6.69% of men and only 2.76% of women remaining unmarried.

Second, “no childbearing” does not mean a lifetime commitment to remain childless. In fact, most Chinese women still desire to have children. Census data shows that while the proportion of 40-year-old women with no live births increased from 2.66% in 2010 to 7.85% in 2020, this age group still had an average of 1.63 live births in 2020.

Third, “no marriage” should be more accurately described as “delayed marriage.” This is evident in the rising age at first marriage. Census data indicates that since 2000, the average age of first marriage in China has been steadily increasing, from 24.21 years in 2000 to 28.64 years in 2020.

Fourth, “no childbearing” is more indicative of “delayed childbearing,” as the age of first childbirth is also increasing. According to census data, the average age of first childbirth among Chinese women rose from 24.83 years in 2000 to 27.94 years in 2020.

Fifth, the delay in marriage and childbirth is not uniform across all regions and demographic groups. In rural areas and among low-income groups, the traditional marriage and childbearing model remains prevalent. This reflects differences in social structures and economic development, suggesting that delayed marriage is not a universal trend but one limited to certain groups. Analysis of the marriage and fertility behaviors of individuals aged 40 shows that marriage and childbearing remain widespread in China. The decline in marriage and fertility rates among young people should be more accurately understood as a delay in these behaviors, rather than a complete abandonment of them. In fact, delayed marriage and childbirth are increasingly common worldwide, both in developed and developing nations.

Additionally, a special survey on groups opting for delayed marriage, childbirth, or fewer children, conducted by the Population and Development Studies Center at Renmin University of China, shows that despite the trend towards delayed marriage, childbirth, and fewer children, most people still wish to marry and have children.

For example, among men and women aged 30-45 who have never married (8.88% of this age group), only 20% of respondents said they did not plan to marry in the future. Given that the average gap between first marriage and first childbirth is two years, nearly 80% of the surveyed women and their spouses, aged 20-40, who had been married for over two years but had not yet had children, expressed a desire to have children.

This demonstrates that traditional views on marriage and childbearing are far from disappearing in China. Young people are not avoiding marriage and childbirth; they are simply delaying them.

The survey also examined fertility intentions among families with one child. Among women aged 20-45 and their spouses, with their first child aged 3 or older and no second child, nearly half of respondents considered two children to be ideal. However, over 70% expressed no intention of having a second child, indicating a discrepancy between ideal family size and actual reproductive behavior.

 

Causes for delay

After extensive studies, scholars have identified several key factors contributing to the delay in marriage and childbearing.

First, economic factors play a major role. High costs for housing, education, and healthcare have deterred many young people from pursuing marriage and parenthood. Unstable employment, limited income growth, and even the risk of unemployment, have pressured young people to delay marriage and childbearing in order to achieve career stability and financial independence.

Second, educational factors are significant. As education becomes more widespread and opportunities for higher education increase, young people are generally extending their years of education, which in turn delays their entry into the workforce, marriage, and parenthood.

Third, social and cultural factors have a profound impact. The rapid pace of social and economic development has deeply influenced the values and life philosophies of young Chinese people. Urbanization, while promoting individualism, has also strengthened the desire for self-fulfilment, leading to a reduced reliance on traditional marriage and family structures. Furthermore, the advancement of gender equality has provided women with more opportunities for education and career development, encouraging them to break free from traditional family roles. As a result, an increasing number of women are prioritizing their careers, leading to delays in marriage and childbirth or even reduced fertility.

Fourth, under the combined influence of personal choices and external obstacles, delayed childbearing has led many women to face reproductive difficulties or infertility, which further impacts overall marriage and fertility rates. 

Zhai Zhenwu is a professor from the Population Development Studies Center at Renmin University of China (RUC); Liu Jianan is from the School of Population and Health at RUC. 

Edited by CHEN MIRONG