An engineer checks equipment of a solar power plant. Photo: TUCHONG 

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Despite grim challenges facing the Chinese economy, economists agree that the recently announced GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024 is a feasible goal, particularly given China’s unique advantages.  

Basis for the target

Huang Qunhui, a CPPCC member and director of the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), commented that the GDP target of around 5% reflects the requirements of maintaining stability while seeking progress, promoting stability through progress, and “establishing the new before abolishing the old.” 

“Stability” means stabilizing growth, and “establishing the new” implies laying a sound economic foundation for high-quality development.

The goal is based on comprehensive considerations of domestic and international environments alongside various aspects, Huang said. The growth target is well aligned with the objective to grow China’s per capita GDP to be on par with that of a mid-level developed country by 2035 when China will basically realize modernization and the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), as additional considerations were given to China’s economic growth potential and the conditions supporting growth. 

“It is an enterprising, achievable goal via enhanced efforts,” Huang said. 

This year’s growth target is consistent with last year’s. Data listed in the government work report has shown that China fulfilled its commitments for 2023, steering its economy toward a robust recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic. According to the report, China’s GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan in 2023, an increase of 5.2% from the previous year, ranking the country among the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Meanwhile, a total of 12.44 million jobs were created in China’s urban areas, the surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, and the consumer price index was up 0.2%. 

The main basis for the GDP target is the unchanged fundamentals of the Chinese economy’s long-term positive growth trajectory, said Li Xuesong, an NPC deputy and director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics at CASS. 

Li pointed out that the potential growth rate remains around 5% at present. Objectively, the economy has been equipped with the stage for the expected growth. 

The 5% growth objective will be conducive to boosting confidence and better guiding economic development, Li said. 

Source of confidence 

According to the government work report, China has many advantages, including unique institutions, a super-large domestic market, a complete industrial system, and an abundant high-caliber workforce. 

In an interview with Xinhua News Agency, Justin Yifu Lin, a CPPCC member and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, said that the Chinese economy still boasts great potential, and it is very likely to achieve mid-to-high growth if the above advantages are fully leveraged while risks and challenges are properly addressed. 

Institutionally, Xia Jiechang, deputy director of the National Academy of Economic Strategy at CASS, told CSST that China’s distinctive socialist market economic system will give full play to the strength of the market economy, and pull efforts for major undertakings, playing an irreplaceable role in implementing catch-up strategies, resisting market risks, rectifying market disorder, balancing regional development, and narrowing the income gap. 

Regarding the advantage of a super-large market, the large population of more than 1.4 billion, per capita GDP of over $12,000, and rapid upgrade of the consumption structure have made China one of the most promising and advantaged markets in the world, said Yuan Lei, deputy director of the Institute of Economics at CASS. This allows the Chinese economy to demonstrate strong resilience and huge potential in the face of external impacts. 

According to the government work report, exports of Chinese electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products crossed the 1-trillion-yuan mark for the first time in 2023, evidencing a modern industrial system that is becoming ever more intelligent, green, and integrated. Li Xiaohua, head of the department of international industry at CASS’s Institute of Industrial Economics, emphasized that a complete industrial system can help continuously improve design and production processes, and lower costs to foster the competitiveness of mid- and high-tech products. China’s complete modern industrial system indicates that there are numerous and differentiated sub-sectors, industrial chain links, and enterprises. In addition to the country’s immense industrial size, rich scenarios can be provided to accelerate the formation of new quality productive forces. 

Discussing China’s human resource edge, Du Yang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at CASS, said that “engineer dividends” have taken shape in skill-intensive industries of the Chinese economy. China’s intensified support for knowledge- and skill-intensive sectors, such as high-end manufacturing, software services, and financial technology, will facilitate the economy to acquire new driving forces, and further exert its potential and resilience.

Edited by CHEN MIRONG