A national mainstream media photography exhibition themed "Promoting the Chinese Path to Modernization" opened in Beijing on Oct. 21. Photo: Qu Honglun/CNSphoto

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Chinese modernization is the modernization of a vast population. How do we identify the opportunities and challenges that a massive population size creates for modernization? How can we design an inclusive path to modernization that benefits over a billion people? Both in-depth theoretical reflections and systematic social practices are needed to answer these questions.

At the theoretical level, it is necessary to scientifically understand the inherent connection between population and modernization.

There is no precedent to follow for achieving modernization in a developing country with over one sixth of the world’s population. In China, understanding the implications of negative population growth, an inverted age structure, the reversal of urban-rural population distribution, and the improvement of human capital forms the primary basis for understanding the inherent connect between population and modernization.

Current and future demographic development in China is faced with both problems encountered by developed countries, such as population ageing and sub-replacement birth rates, and those by developing countries, such as uneven and inadequate development. This further complicates the connection between population and modernization.

“Modernization of a huge population” represents a new theoretical and practical understanding. Demographic factors are overlooked in most existing modernization theories, and systematic, thorough, and diversified examination of modernization is largely absent in demographic research. To accurately grasp the unique role of population in the process of modernization, it is essential to develop a framework for theoretical analysis, and build a scientific, rigorous, controllable, and easy-to-operate indicator system for measuring modernization.

At the empirical level, it is necessary to make full use of the positive aspects of population size, quality, structure, and distribution so as to strengthen the demographic foundation of the Chinese path to modernization.

The enormous population size can bring development opportunities for modernization. China’s working age population (aged 16-59) approaches 900 million, surpassing the total in developed countries worldwide. This will provide a steady driving force for China’s modernization.

The vast labor force and consumer market constitute a “stabilizer” for economic and social development to mitigate various fluctuations and shocks. The continuous improvement of population health and education quality as well as the abundant human capital can help address the challenges of population decline and aging, enhancing the vitality and sustainability of China’s economic development.

The positive aspects of a huge population on modernization are also reflected in the process of new urbanization. As economies of scale are generated through population aggregation, modernization in social life is primarily embodied by cities, which are the centers of production, living, consumption, and innovation. Cities also serve as primary hubs for assimilating and nurturing new ideas, methods, and technologies, exerting a radiating and propelling influence on the economic and social development of surrounding regions.

At the level of development paths, it is necessary to adopt a Chinese path to modernization.

The starting points, processes, speeds, outcomes, and models of modernization vary from country to country. A huge population determines that China’s modernization must, on the one hand, follow the general principles of modernization and learn from the achievements of other countries, and on the other hand, blaze a new trail based on its own conditions.

First, it is important to improve the birth support system, reduce the cost of raising children, and maintain a moderate birth rate and population size.

Second, population aging needs to be actively addressed to reap the longevity dividend. We should attach greater importance on the well-being of the elderly, advocate for active aging, and fully tap into the productive potential of senior citizens while respecting their wishes. 

Third, it is important to promote digital rural development and increase investment in education and health in the central and western regions of the country with the goal of reducing the urban-rural and regional imbalances in population quality and distribution.

Fourth, we should continue to leverage the advantage of population size, while also enhancing gender equality and improving human capital.

Fifth, the potential of urbanization and digital technology needs to be unleashed.

Yang Juhua is a professor in the School of Ethnology and Sociology at Minzu University of China.

Edited by WANG YOURAN