China Social Science Review

No.3, 2021

Can International Political Research Predict the Future?

(Abstract)

Wang Jin

In recent years, scholars of international politics have produced a growing number of analyses and discussions of prediction. International political research suffers from the academic community’s profound misunderstanding of “predictions.” This field has come under fire from some for its unitary methodology and inability to predict the course of some major political event, while others criticize it for neglecting the study of history and the consequent failure of their predictions. The discipline of international politics is mainly concerned with explanations at the systemic level rather than predictions of a specific event. Although scholars do try to make predictions, their predictions fall into three categories: assessment of trends, classification of preferences and judgment of probabilities. Each type should be analyzed using causal and correlative linkages. Many challenges still confront the study of prediction in international politics, and time and patience are still required to make comprehensive and accurate predictions in this field.