Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No.2, 2021

Changing Trends in Education Matching in the Chinese Urban Labor Market: A Dynamic Analysis of the Age-Period-Generation Effect

(Abstract)

Wu Xiaogang and Li Xiaoguang

The “graduates difficulty in finding a job” in the labor market is becoming an immediate and pressing problem. The global expansion of education in the past half century has led to a problem of education matching, particularly over-education, in labor markets across the world. This paper uses an age-period-generation model to evaluate the trend of educational mismatching in the Chinese urban labor market on the basis of China General Social Survey data (2003-2017). It shows that first, over-education overall shows a downward trend (period effect) with the upgrading of China’s occupational structure. Secondly, with the spread of compulsory education and the expansion of higher education, over-education is rising rapidly in terms of birth cohort (generational response). Finally, a mismatch between individuals’ education and their position in the labor market will have a long-term effect on their working life. These findings have significant theoretical value and policy implications for advancing China as an educationally strong country, building an education system that is coordinated with high-quality development, strengthening the linkages and degree of matching between education and the labor market, and allowing everyone to display their talents.