Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No.1, 2021

Measurement of China’s Macroeconomic Resilience: A Systemic Risk Perspective

(Abstract)

Liu Xiaoxing, Zhang Xu and Li Shouwei

In the context of the intensifying effect of external uncertainties and the conversion of new and old internal dynamics, accurately identifying China’s macroeconomic resilience under the impact of systemic risk in financial markets has become an important topic. We used 117 financial indexes to measure financial market systemic risk and 151 macroeconomic indicators to estimate time-varying impulse responses, and also used risk absorption intensity and duration to quantitatively measure macroeconomic resilience. The influencing factors are examined through the regime switching model. The results show that China’s macroeconomic resilience has steadily improved. This is particularly true of the marked improvement in the resilience of the import and export subsystem. Macroeconomic resilience has significant heterogeneity at the industry, business, region, and urban-rural levels; it is affected by economic conditions, currency cycles and total factor productivity, and shows regime switching characteristics. Identifying the risk absorption capacity of the economic system and exploring ways to improve macroeconomic resilience is of great significance for the achievement of the goal of high-quality development and the formation of a new double development dynamic, with the domestic economy and international engagement providing mutual reinforcement, and the former as the mainstay.