Social Sciences in China

Vol. 40, No. 3, 2019

Generalized Population Aging in China: A National-Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

(Abstract)

Yin Wenyao, Li Fen, Yao Yinmei, et al.

The age structure of the Chinese population is entering a process of generalized aging in which the major age groupings will see a fall in the ratio of younger age groups and a rise in the ratio of older age groups, with varying levels of socioeconomic significance for the entire population system. The implementation of the unconditional two-child policy (quanmian erhai zhengce) has not changed this general trend. The early stage of population aging (2011-2060) is one of the high-speed development of generalized aging with multiple growth peaks and fluctuations in the size, growth rate and internal structure of the major age groupings. From the perspective of generalized population aging, China’s future contains four major systemic demographic dividends and faces four major systemic demographic risks. The early stage of aging is the most important period for the transformation of the population age structure. If society can adjust to the aging trend and the phased nature of the development of this trend, it will be able to seize the initiative in long-term development.

Keywords: transformation of population age structure, generalized population aging, generalized aging dividends, generalized aging risks