Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No.2, 2019

Changes in the Economic Structure and Trends in China’s Future Energy Demands

(Abstract)

Zheng Xinye, Wu Shimei and Li Fanghua

Evaluating trends in China’s future energy demands is highly important. Using provincial-level panel dat from 1995 to 2015, we studied the relationships between the economic aggregate, the development of the high-energy consumption industry, and energy demand. We find that the economic aggregate affects energy demand through the high-energy consumption industry and that changes in the economic structure are the main factor in changes to energy demand. This means that China’s future energy demands will be much lower than those contained in forecasts that did not consider this factor. Comprehensively promoting green-tech development and strengthening regulation of the high-energy consumption industry will be  key option for realizing China’s objective of controlling total energy consumption.