Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No.9, 2017

Generalized Aging of the Chinese Population: A National Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

(Abstract)

Yin Wenyao, Li Fen, Yao Yinmei et al.

The age structure of the Chinese population has entered a period of generalized aging, expressed mainly in a decrease in younger age groups’ share of the population and an increase in that of older age groups across broad age groups with varying socioeconomic significance within the total population. The implementation of unconditioned two-child policy has failed to change this trend. In the first phase of population aging (2011-2060), population aging develops rapidly, with a number of peaks, and the size, growth rate and internal structure of broad age groups fluctuates. In terms of generalized aging, China will enjoy four major systemic dividends and face four systemic risks. The first phase of aging is the most important for changes in the age structure of the population; society will gain the initiative in longterm development as long as it can adapt to the overall trend towards aging.