Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No.9, 2015

Transformation of China’s Energy Structure under Environmental Governance Constraints: A Peak Value Analysis of Coal and Carbon Dioxide

(Abstract)

Lin Boqiang and Li Jianglong

Under environmental governance constraints, changes in China’s energy structure and their effect on coal consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are currently important issues urgently requiring research. Based on the fact that environmental governance has a reverse transmission effect on changes in energy structure, we constructed a comprehensive forecasting framework for Chinese energy encompassing environmental governance. Energy supply constraints and constraints imposed by policy objectives are also taken into account. Against the background of Chinese environmental governance, forecasts for coal demand and carbon dioxide emissions show that the transformation of energy structure arising from the goal of environmental governance can act as a marked check on coal consumption and carbon dioxide emissions without significantly constraining economic development. It will become natural for the peak values for coal and carbon dioxide emissions to occur ahead of time.