China had 245 million migrants at the end of 2013, representing more than onesixth of the national population, according to the 2014 Report on China’s Migrant Population Development released by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on Nov. 14th, 2014. (XINHUA)

 

 

Scholars say that the growing use of geographic information systems (GIS), a powerful spatial analysis tool, in the field of humanities and social sciences is enriching demographic research through data mining and processing.

 

In the era of industrialization and urbanization, contemporary social and economic development is largely characterized by mass population migration, which is closely affected by the features of the surrounding geographical space. Therefore, the study of the population distribution, migration patterns and spatial correlation structure are of significance to social development and government decision-making.

 

Visualizing demographic analysis

Reliable demographic data and analysis are indispensible because policymakers need to consider the size and structure of the target population as well as its changing trends when making scientific public policies, said He Xiong, an associate professor from the School of Public Administration at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law.

 

GIS can be used in spatial data collection, and most data contain a geographic component that can be tied to a specific location, such as a zip code or a single address. It also has the advanced capability to generate clear and accessible maps as well as statistical reports, He continued.

 

Mi Hong, a professor of public affairs at Zhejiang University, said that GIS offers a visualized platform for the analysis of population distribution, spatial correlation as well as temporal and spatial variability, revealing hidden trends that are not readily apparent in traditional spreadsheet and statistical packages.

 

“GIS is behind the rapid development of the three independent but closely related branches in demography, namely mathematical demography, spatial demography and population geography,” Mi said, adding that the spatial dimension of GIS enhances the interaction between demography and other social sciences disciplines as spatial demographic data analysis becomes an important part of social sciences research.

 

Spatial migration patterns

Most major cities in China have utilized population GIS, and it has played a crucial role in conducting the census, said Wang Guangzhou, a research fellow from the Institute of Population and Labor Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

 

Su Xihua, a professor from the College of Population, Resources and Environment at Shangdong Normal University, adopted GIS in the quantitative study on the migration of population gravity centers, and he said tracking the migration of population gravity centers helped identify the population distribution and its trends while reflecting the level of activity of population redistribution.

 

On that basis, Su said, the analysis of patterns and reasons of spatial population distribution can serve as an important piece of evidence in planning population development policies and regional socioeconomic development.

 

“In the future, GIS should be applied in the demographic research to solve ‘the three tasks concerning 100 million people’ in China,” Mi said. Mi said GIS can monitor population size, level of education, migration flow and population activity indicators, such as intensity and frequency, in the urban and rural integration of different regions to conduct systematic simulation and assessment of population size in different cities or urban agglomerations.

 

Problems remain

Scholars believe that maturing GIS technology could save demographists from tedious data collection and sorting while improving demographic research abilities.

 

However, some bottlenecks still exist under the current technical conditions, among which data retrieval and high costs stand out , Mi said.

 

Wang said the biggest obstacles are the establishment of GIS and information sharing as well as the implementation of real-time data analysis capabilities, standardization of basic information from different geographical factors and different data sources, and data integration.

 

Mi called for more application of theory and methods in spatial statistics because most studies only use GIS software for visualization of population distribution or the simple analysis of population gravity center change. In-depth research has yet to take place.

 

The Chinese version appeared in Chinese Social Sciences Today, No. 677, Dec.8, 2014      

The Chinese link is: http://www.cssn.cn/gd/gd_rwhd/gd_gdxc_1652/201412/t20141209_1435968.shtml

 

 

 

 

 

Translated by Yang Xue

Revised by Justin Ward