Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No. 2, 2023

From Hegemonic Alternation to “Multipolar Checks and Balances”: The Evolution of the Maritime Landscape since the 16th Century

(Abstract)

Hu Bo

From the 16th century to around 2000, unipolar dominance and the alternation of hegemonies were the main maritime patterns. Today, whether this pattern will last is the most important maritime strategic issue. Our research concludes that the development of military technology and changes in international norms are playing a decisive role in the transition of maritime power. Before 2000, military technology and international norms contributed to the centralization rather than the decentralization of maritime power as a whole. In the 21st century, the trend has been reversed. The development of military technology and international norms are changing traditional maritime patterns, and the maritime power of the world’s great powers has been checked, contained and diluted to varying extents. In the 2010s, maritime multi-polarity has become evident. During this major change, both the dominant maritime powers and the rising powers need to implement strategic shifts and policy adjustments that go beyond the traditional power paradigm.