Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No.4, 2014

A Change in the Desired Fertility of the Chinese Population: 1980-2011

(Abstract)

Hou Jiawei, Huang Silin and Xin Ziqiang et al.

On the basis of a 227-item survey of desired fertility among the Chinese carried out from 1980 to 2011, we conducted a cross-temporal meta-analysis to examine longitudinal changes in desired fertility. Our findings show that since 1980, the ideal number of children in a Chinese family has been declining. After 2000, desired fertility was mainly expressed as having two children, “a boy and a girl.” On average, the ideal number of children is basically stable at 1.6-1.8. In the 1980s, the Chinese fertility level was higher than the desired fertility level. With the improvement of economic and educational development, both the fertility level and desired fertility trended downwards, but the fall in the fertility level was faster than that of desired fertility. Since 1990, the fertility level has been lower than desired fertility, i.e. the number of children people actually had has been fewer than their ideal number of children. This provides empirical evidence for understanding trends in desired fertility and fertility levels in China.