Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No. 5, 2022

The Status Transition of China’s Economic Growth (1979-2020): A Study Based on a Complex Systems Perspective

(Abstract)

Fang Yi, Meng Jixian and Zhang Yishan

Describing the macroeconomic growth process from a holistic and historical perspective helps put aside short-term disturbances of elements such as growth path and growth stage, allowing us to grasp the prospects of the Chinese economy in a more objective manner. This article combines the convergence of overall economic growth and divergence of regional economic growth from a complex system perspective, and proposes a new method of examining status changes in China’s economic growth based on the real annual growth rates from 1979 to 2020 of the whole country and its 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The results show that the Chinese economy has undergone two status transitions since reform and opening up, with the second starting in 2003. After 2006, the Chinese economy was developing on a new growth path and since 2013, China’s economic growth has been moving towards equilibrium on this path.